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2024-12-14 00:40:45

Ceng Gang, Shanghai Finance and Development Laboratory: Judging from the economic situation and policy space, it is still possible to lower the RRR and cut interest rates in the future. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. In this regard, Ceng Gang, chief expert and director of Shanghai Finance and Development Laboratory, said that the tone of "moderately loose" monetary policy is in the same strain as that of Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party. China's monetary policy has been adjusted from "steady" to "moderately loose", aiming at boosting economic growth and alleviating downward pressure through a more active monetary policy, while providing support for key areas and structural adjustment. In response to the expression of "timely RRR cuts and interest rate cuts", Ceng Gang believes that from the current economic situation and policy space, it is still possible to implement RRR cuts in the future, especially in targeted cuts to required reserve ratios, to release long-term liquidity; The possibility of interest rate cuts is also greater, and it is expected that a one-time large-scale interest rate cut will be implemented at the end of this year or early next year. (SSE)Analysis: Lagarde's speech increased the market's bet to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. In December, the European Central Bank lowered its economic forecast and inflation forecast. At the press conference, European Central Bank President Lagarde paid attention to the downside risks of economic growth, especially mentioning that trade friction may put pressure on economic growth, and also mentioned that they discussed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the atmosphere of the whole meeting is biased towards doves. The market then increased its bet on a 50 basis point rate cut after January. Although the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut in January is stable at 30%, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in March has increased from 30% before the meeting to 40%, and the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in April has increased from 0% to 5%.Taihe New Materials: At present, the domestic market share of the company's aramid 1414 products is about 50%. Taihe New Materials said on the interactive platform that the company realized the pilot test of aramid 1414 in 2008 and began to cultivate domestic and foreign markets, and realized industrial production and commercial operation in 2011. At present, the domestic market share of this product is about 50%.


European Central Bank President Lagarde: Labor cost growth will slow down.Royal Bank of Canada: The European Central Bank may move towards negative real interest rate. Royal Bank of Canada BlueBay Asset Management said that the European Central Bank may cut the interest rate below 2% next year, which the agency estimated to be a short-term neutral interest rate. Kaspar Hense, senior portfolio manager of the institution, said in a report that the core inflation rate is expected to be around 2.5% in the first half of 2025, which means that the real interest rate will be negative. He said that under the influence of unfavorable factors such as trade, continuous competitive pressure from other countries and financial problems, this should play a moderate supporting role in the economy.Stellantis: After rejoining ACEA, it will be consistent with its proposal. Jean-Philippe Imparato, head of Europe for Stellantis, said on Thursday that Stellantis decided to rejoin the European automobile lobby group ACEA, which means that the automobile manufacturer will immediately be consistent with the group's proposal. Stellantis said last week that he would rejoin ACEA, and the group withdrew in early 2023. Under the leadership of Carlos Tavares, CEO who resigned earlier this month, the group had previously opposed ACEA's call for reducing the EU's intermediate carbon emission reduction target in 2025, saying that it might bring billions of dollars in losses to the automobile industry.


European Central Bank President Lagarde: Eurozone banks remain resilient.Ceng Gang, Shanghai Finance and Development Laboratory: Judging from the economic situation and policy space, it is still possible to lower the RRR and cut interest rates in the future. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. In this regard, Ceng Gang, chief expert and director of Shanghai Finance and Development Laboratory, said that the tone of "moderately loose" monetary policy is in the same strain as that of Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party. China's monetary policy has been adjusted from "steady" to "moderately loose", aiming at boosting economic growth and alleviating downward pressure through a more active monetary policy, while providing support for key areas and structural adjustment. In response to the expression of "timely RRR cuts and interest rate cuts", Ceng Gang believes that from the current economic situation and policy space, it is still possible to implement RRR cuts in the future, especially in targeted cuts to required reserve ratios, to release long-term liquidity; The possibility of interest rate cuts is also greater, and it is expected that a one-time large-scale interest rate cut will be implemented at the end of this year or early next year. (SSE)European Central Bank President Lagarde: Economic growth in the euro zone is facing downside risks. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the latest information shows that the euro zone economy is losing momentum and the risk of economic growth is on the downside. Lagarde said at a news conference in Frankfurt on Thursday that in the face of weak demand and highly uncertain prospects, enterprises are curbing investment spending-labor demand continues to weaken, exports are also weak, and the labor market remains flexible. "Over time, the economy should strengthen, though at a slower pace than previously expected," she said.

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